Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Taylor Heinicke from EV Insight

Taylor HeinickePassing Yards

Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 190.5 (-115) after it opened @ 204.5 (-115).

Pros

The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
The Washington Commanders offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Taylor Heinicke has been among the least accurate QBs in football this year with a 63.1% Completion%, ranking in the 22nd percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, surrendering 6.87 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
220
Passing Yards