Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Taylor HeinickePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Commanders
Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 190.5 (-115) after it opened @ 204.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Taylor Heinicke has been among the least accurate QBs in football this year with a 63.1% Completion%, ranking in the 22nd percentile.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, surrendering 6.87 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
220
Passing Yards
220
Passing Yards
