Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam DarnoldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Panthers vs. Lions
Right now, Sam Darnold’s passing yards prop is set at 199.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 199.5 (-129) after it opened @ 191.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup QB Sam Darnold this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Sam Darnold’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 59.9% to 63.1%.
- Sam Darnold’s passing effectiveness has improved this season, averaging 7.92 yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.16 figure last season.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 49.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.9 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 28.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
185
Passing Yards
185
Passing Yards
