Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 215.5 (-110) after it opened @ 221.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the NFL against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (72.4%).
- The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
- The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 34.9 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
- Russell Wilson’s passing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 59.3%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards
251
Passing Yards
