Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Nick FolesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Colts vs. Chargers
Right now, Nick Foles’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 229.5 (-105) after it opened @ 233.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Foles to attempt 37.2 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 209.0 per game) versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards
270
Passing Yards
