Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Nick Foles from EV Insight

Nick FolesPassing Yards

Right now, Nick Foles’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 229.5 (-105) after it opened @ 233.5 (-115).

Pros

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Foles to attempt 37.2 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 209.0 per game) versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards