Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 273.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 273.5 (-110) after it opened @ 266.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
Kirk Cousins has been among the leading QBs in football this year, averaging a terrific 271.0 yards per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Cons

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in football versus the New York Giants defense this year (67.4%).
The New York Giants defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
311
Passing Yards