FTN NFL Model Best Bet: Week 6
FTN Staff
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Raiders
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 180.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 180.5 (-115) after it opened @ 185.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-most yards in football (264.0 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in football against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (73.2%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, surrendering 8.08 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in the league.
- The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has given their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
193
Passing Yards
193
Passing Yards
