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Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kenny Pickett from EV Insight

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Kenny Pickett

Kenny PickettPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 16

Steelers vs. Raiders

Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 180.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 180.5 (-115) after it opened @ 185.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-most yards in football (264.0 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in football against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (73.2%).
  • The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, surrendering 8.08 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in the league.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has given their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection
THE BLITZ
193
Passing Yards

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