Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 275.5 (-110) after it opened @ 281.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 42.4 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.

Cons

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in the league.
Justin Herbert has been among the least efficient quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a measly 6.59 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 16th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 10th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, conceding 7.29 yards-per-target: the 10th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
292
Passing Yards