Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Colts vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 275.5 (-110) after it opened @ 281.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 42.4 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in the league.
- Justin Herbert has been among the least efficient quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a measly 6.59 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 16th percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 10th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, conceding 7.29 yards-per-target: the 10th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
292
Passing Yards
292
Passing Yards
