Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Bills
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 135.5 yards (+112/-154).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 135.5 (-154) after it opened @ 137.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- Justin Fields’s throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 60.3% to 64.0%.
- Justin Fields has been among the most efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 7.44 yards-per-target while checking in at the 75th percentile.
- The Chicago Bears offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 42.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
127
Passing Yards
127
Passing Yards
