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Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

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Josh Allen

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 16

Bears vs. Bills

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 212.5 (-110) after it opened @ 221.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 70.7% pass rate.
  • Josh Allen has attempted 38.1 passes per game this year, grading out in the 86th percentile among QBs.
  • Josh Allen has been among the top quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an impressive 279.0 yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
  • Josh Allen has been among the most effective QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.66 yards-per-target while grading out in the 78th percentile.
Cons

  • The Bills are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
  • The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Projection
THE BLITZ
209
Passing Yards

Previous Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight Next Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight