FTN NFL Model Best Bet: Week 6
FTN Staff
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 212.5 (-110) after it opened @ 221.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 70.7% pass rate.
- Josh Allen has attempted 38.1 passes per game this year, grading out in the 86th percentile among QBs.
- Josh Allen has been among the top quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an impressive 279.0 yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
- Josh Allen has been among the most effective QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.66 yards-per-target while grading out in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
209
Passing Yards
209
Passing Yards
