Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 258.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 258.5 (-110) after it opened @ 262.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Joe Burrow has attempted 37.5 throws per game this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Joe Burrow has been among the leading QBs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 283.0 yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target passers in the NFL this year with a terrific 69.0% Completion%, ranking in the 97th percentile.

Cons

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league versus the New England Patriots defense this year (65.6%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, allowing 7.23 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards