Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Panthers vs. Lions
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 239.5 (-139) after it opened @ 243.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (73.8%).
- The Carolina Panthers safeties profile as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 11th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
212
Passing Yards
212
Passing Yards
