Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deshaun WatsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Browns vs. Saints
Right now, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards prop is set at 150.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 150.5 (-110) after it opened @ 155.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.10 seconds per snap.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line has given their quarterback 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 26.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the least yards in the league (just 203.0 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
158
Passing Yards
158
Passing Yards
