NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Davis MillsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Titans vs. Texans
Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 170.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 170.5 (-115) after it opened @ 174.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 43.1 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the most yards in the NFL (304.0 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year (73.0%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 24.4 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
- The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Davis Mills’s passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 61.7%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
149
Passing Yards
149
Passing Yards
