Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 216.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 216.5 (-110) after it opened @ 218.5 (-115).

Pros

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in football), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Cons

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 9th-least yards in the NFL (just 217.0 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards