Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Broncos
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 183.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 183.5 (-145) after it opened @ 194.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has given their quarterback 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.8 passes this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- Baker Mayfield has passed for significantly fewer yards per game (27.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
233
Passing Yards
233
Passing Yards
