Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 183.5 yards (+106/-145).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 183.5 (-145) after it opened @ 194.5 (-114).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has given their quarterback 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.8 passes this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield has passed for significantly fewer yards per game (27.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
233
Passing Yards