Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-129) after it opened @ 242.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the most yards in the NFL (260.0 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks grade out as the worst CB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 35.3 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
Aaron Rodgers has passed for quite a few less yards per game (233.0) this season than he did last season (269.0).
Aaron Rodgers’s passing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.8% to 66.3%.
The Miami Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards