Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
For many, Week 17 marks the fantasy championship round. At the very least, nearly every league is facing the final four competitors making a move for the fantasy championship. Fantasy managers must pull out all of the stops to try and secure a crucial win to take down their fantasy championship.
This article will look a little different this week. Expect to see some longshot players as your fantasy risers and some fantasy stalwarts in the fallers section. There may not be as many players this week, but there should be players that capture the upside (or cannot be trusted) heading into the final matchup of the season.
Week 16 Fantasy Football Risers
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
The rookie signal-caller has been much maligned this season while playing behind a terrible offensive line with an array of pass catchers that can’t generate separation. Bryce Young has been frequently labeled a bust, which felt aggressive but made sense when his statistical output was compared to fellow rookie (and second overall pick) C.J. Stroud.
For at least one week, Young showed all of the tools that made him the top overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The quarterback completed 23-of-35 passes for 312 passing yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions against the Packers in Week 16. Sure, it wasn’t the toughest matchup of the season. But we have seen Young struggle to surpass 200 passing yards against bad secondaries all season.
Time will tell if this game is who Young will be as an NFL quarterback or a blip on the radar. At the very least, it showed that Young’s ability to attack with accuracy despite underwhelming size and athleticism can play at the NFL level. He should be on the fantasy radar in two-quarterback leagues as a streaming option against the Jaguars’ defense in Week 17.
Taylor Heinicke, QB, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons went back to Taylor Heinicke in Week 16 after another underwhelming stat line from Desmond Ridder. Heinicke had a modest output (229 yards and a touchdown) against the Colts, but he completed 69% of his passes and kept the offense moving.
More importantly, Heinicke showed the ability to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers, primarily Bijan Robinson (seven receptions for 50 yards) and Kyle Pitts (three receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown). While Heinicke himself didn’t have a massive game, he was able to breathe life into weapons on offense that have frustrated fantasy managers for the majority of the season.
The Falcons will have a tough matchup against the Bears and their resurgent defense in Week 17, but at the very least fantasy managers can feel more comfortable taking an upside shot on Pitts or Drake London with the veteran signal-caller under center.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
There was a belief coming into the 2023 season that George Pickens could emerge as the Steelers’ WR1 given his combination of size, speed and playmaking ability. That dream hasn’t come to fruition in a struggling offense that has seen three different starting quarterbacks and two offensive coordinators. It would be hard to imagine many managers had Pickens in their starting lineups in their Week 16 matchup. However, the teams that moved on should consider elevating the second-year receiver into their lineups in Week 17.
Pickens put together an absurd four receptions for 195 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals in Week 16. The veteran receiver made big plays downfield on the sidelines and flashed the speed that made him a second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. More importantly, Pickens was finally matched up with a quarterback (Mason Rudolph) who could attack vertically down the field, which is a skill prior starters Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky did not consistently show.
While we can’t expect nearly 200 receiving yards out of Pickens every week, he should have the ability to provide a solid fantasy performance in the championship round against a Seahawks secondary that is struggling to stay healthy at this point in the season.
Tommy Tremble, TE, Carolina Panthers
2023 was the first season in a while where fantasy managers could have gotten tight end production from many different avenues. Unfortunately, injuries have taken away some of the top fantasy options, which could leave managers searching for a player to give them production in the very last week of the season.
One player to monitor is Panthers’ tight end Tommy Tremble. Tremble had his best game of the season against the Packers, catching four of six targets for 59 yards in a close loss. More importantly, Tremble continued to be on the field a significant amount. The second-year tight end has played over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in four of the last five games. He’s also had at least two targets in each game since Carolina’s Week 13 bye.
Yes, it is very unlikely that Tremble will give the fantasy manager top-three production in the last week of the season. But he’s an excellent athlete who just had a strong game in his rookie quarterback’s best performance. There is a good chance that he has earned more work in the passing attack against Jacksonville.
Week 16 Fantasy Football Fallers
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville’s offense continues to struggle thanks to injuries and general ineffectiveness. One of the biggest problems the team has had is the apparent regression of Trevor Lawrence. Over the last three weeks, Lawrence has completed just 57.5% of his passes for 732 yards and five touchdowns with five interceptions.
More concerning is the fact that the veteran quarterback has been forced to play through his injuries (a concussion in Week 15 and a shoulder injury in Week 16) as well as injuries to his receiving weapons. Time will tell how serious Lawrence’s most recent shoulder injury is, but even if he is healthy enough to play in Week 17, he will likely be limited and down both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in the passing attack. That’s not great against a Panthers defense that is starting to get healthy.
Fantasy managers who have been able to survive Lawrence’s struggles to reach the fantasy playoffs may be better off searching for a higher upside option in the most important game of the season.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Fantasy managers likely made it into the fantasy semifinals thanks to Jaylen Waddle‘s explosive performance in Week 15 without Tyreek Hill (eight receptions for 142 yards and a touchdown). It looked like Waddle would have an equally explosive performance after grabbing his first reception against the Cowboys for a 50-yard gain. Unfortunately, that was the high point of his game.
First, Waddle was removed from the game after getting poked in the eye. Waddle would eventually return, only to suffer an ankle injury that took him out of the game. Early indications are that Waddle has suffered a high ankle sprain against Dallas.
At worst, Waddle will be unable to play in the fantasy championship during Week 17. At best (if the injury is a high ankle sprain), Waddle will be highly limited by an injury that historically saps explosiveness. Waddle’s practice status needs to be closely monitored this week to determine if he’s worth playing in the most important game of the season.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
T.J. Hockenson has been an excellent producer in both real and fantasy football since being acquired by the Minnesota Vikings during the 2022 NFL season. Unfortunately, a low hit against the Detroit Lions caused a knee injury that not only knocked Hockenson out of the game but may cost him the rest of the season.
That is bad news for fantasy managers who have come to expect plug-and-play top-3 production out of the veteran tight end throughout the fantasy season.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
Unlike the other fallers, Dalton Kincaid did not suffer a major injury in Week 16. However, he has struggled to offer any fantasy production since veteran tight end Dawson Knox returned from his injured reserve stint.
Over the last two games, the rookie tight end has caught just one of four passes for seven yards. Even more concerning, Kincaid has played in fewer than 50% of the Bills’ offensive snaps in each of the last two games. Fantasy managers may be holding out hope that Kincaid could flash the TE1 upside he showed during Knox’s injury, but it is clear that his role in the offense has been massively reduced even with the team looking good on offense in recent weeks.
