Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to garner 15.9 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
- Raheem Mostert has earned 58.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 28th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to run defense.
- The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 2nd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 36.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 99 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
- The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
