Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Raheem Mostert from EV Insight

Raheem MostertRushing Yards

Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to garner 15.9 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
Raheem Mostert has earned 58.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 28th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 2nd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 36.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 99 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards