Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Browns vs. Ravens
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 48.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 62.5 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Nick Chubb has picked up 87.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (98th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 82 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
- The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box vs. opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards
81
Rushing Yards
