Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).

Pros

The Browns are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 48.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 62.5 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Nick Chubb has picked up 87.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (98th percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 82 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box vs. opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards