Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bears vs. Eagles
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-105) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Eagles are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
- Miles Sanders has rushed for many more yards per game (81.0) this season than he did last season (57.0).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-most yards in the league (147 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.
Cons
- The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have used motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards
74
Rushing Yards
