Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 136.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 20.9 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Jonathan Taylor has been given 81.2% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

The Colts are a big 11.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 37.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jonathan Taylor has rushed for many fewer yards per game (87.0) this year than he did last year (116.0).
The Minnesota Vikings defense boasts the 8th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 4.28 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
98
Rushing Yards