Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 15.7 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has grinded out 66.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (92nd percentile).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends rank as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in regard to defending the run.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his offense’s running game this week (60.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (75.8% in games he has played).
Joe Mixon has been among the bottom RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.67 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards