Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Buccaneers vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 15.7 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has grinded out 66.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (92nd percentile).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends rank as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his offense’s running game this week (60.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (75.8% in games he has played).
- Joe Mixon has been among the bottom RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.67 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
