Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Browns vs. Ravens
Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-113) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 50.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- J.K. Dobbins’s ground effectiveness (5.03 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (79th percentile among running backs).
- The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 5.29 yards-per-carry.
- The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
Cons
- The Baltimore Ravens will be forced to start backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Ravens are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
