Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Panthers vs. Steelers
Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-135) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to accrue 17.1 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
- D’Onta Foreman has garnered 43.7% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
- D’Onta Foreman has picked up 54.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in football among RBs (78th percentile).
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
- The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
