Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devin Singletary from EV Insight

Devin SingletaryRushing Yards

Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bills are a big 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Devin Singletary has grinded out 52.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (75th percentile).
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 29.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 7th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be much less involved in his offense’s run game this week (42.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.8% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have run for the 7th-least yards in football (just 107 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards