WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bills are a big 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Devin Singletary has grinded out 52.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (75th percentile).
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 29.4% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 7th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be much less involved in his offense’s run game this week (42.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.8% in games he has played).
- Opposing squads have run for the 7th-least yards in football (just 107 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
