WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jets vs. Lions
Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
- D’Andre Swift’s rushing efficiency has improved this season, compiling 5.58 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.76 rate last season.
- The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- D’Andre Swift has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this year (25.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (50.3%).
- The New York Jets defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.17 yards-per-carry.
- The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 6th-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Rushing Yards
34
Rushing Yards
