Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D'Andre Swift from EV Insight

D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards

Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
D’Andre Swift’s rushing efficiency has improved this season, compiling 5.58 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.76 rate last season.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

D’Andre Swift has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this year (25.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (50.3%).
The New York Jets defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.17 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 6th-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Rushing Yards