Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dalvin Cook from EV Insight

Dalvin CookRushing Yards

Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-120) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to notch 17.6 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Dalvin Cook has been given 76.4% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Dalvin Cook has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (72.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards