Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-120) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 20.0 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
- Christian McCaffrey has averaged 63.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (88th percentile).
- Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most yards in the league (163 per game) against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
- The San Francisco 49ers have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards
81
Rushing Yards
