Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Austin Ekeler from EV Insight

Austin EkelerRushing Yards

Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-116).

Pros

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 63.4 plays per game.
Austin Ekeler has garnered 59.3% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Chargers have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 34.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Austin Ekeler has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 79 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards