Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tutu Atwell from EV Insight

Tutu AtwellReceiving Yards

Right now, Tutu Atwell’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-125/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-125) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tutu Atwell to be a more important option in his team’s air attack this week (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.6% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.9%) vs. wideouts this year (70.9%).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
Tutu Atwell has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 50.0% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 18th percentile among WRs

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards