NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Tutu AtwellReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Packers vs. Rams
Right now, Tutu Atwell’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-125/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-125) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tutu Atwell to be a more important option in his team’s air attack this week (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.6% in games he has played).
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.9%) vs. wideouts this year (70.9%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
- Tutu Atwell has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 50.0% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 18th percentile among WRs
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
