Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
T.J. Hockenson’s 40.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has compiled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards