Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Woods from EV Insight

Robert WoodsReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).

Pros

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Woods to accumulate 6.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
Robert Woods has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 19.9% this year, which puts him in the 77th percentile among WRs.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 11th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
Robert Woods has notched a lot fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 144.0) to WRs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards