Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Robert WoodsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Chargers vs. Titans
Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Woods to accumulate 6.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
- Robert Woods has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 19.9% this year, which puts him in the 77th percentile among WRs.
- The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 11th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
- Robert Woods has notched a lot fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 144.0) to WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
