Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Panthers vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-117) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
- Pat Freiermuth has been a more important option in his offense’s passing offense this year (20.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (12.8%).
- Pat Freiermuth has posted significantly more air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Pat Freiermuth’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 67.5%.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has given up the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 37.0) versus tight ends this year.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. tight ends this year, surrendering 6.92 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.54 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
