Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to accumulate 3.6 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
- The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.8 plays per game.
- Noah Fant has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s pass game this year (11.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.5%).
- Noah Fant has notched far fewer air yards this season (23.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
- Noah Fant has accumulated a lot fewer receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
