Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (+100/-122).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 14.5 (-122) after it opened @ 18.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per snap.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.
Cons
- Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (56.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.3%).
- Mike Gesicki has accrued far fewer air yards this year (30.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Mike Gesicki has totaled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (24.0) this season than he did last season (43.0).
- Mike Gesicki has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a measly 65.6% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards
20
Receiving Yards
