Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (+100/-122).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 14.5 (-122) after it opened @ 18.5 (-120).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Cons

Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (56.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.3%).
Mike Gesicki has accrued far fewer air yards this year (30.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Mike Gesicki has totaled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (24.0) this season than he did last season (43.0).
Mike Gesicki has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a measly 65.6% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards