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Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

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Mike Gesicki

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 15

Bills vs. Dolphins

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (+100/-122).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 14.5 (-122) after it opened @ 18.5 (-120).

Pros

  • The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per snap.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.
Cons

  • Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (56.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.3%).
  • Mike Gesicki has accrued far fewer air yards this year (30.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • Mike Gesicki has totaled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (24.0) this season than he did last season (43.0).
  • Mike Gesicki has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a measly 65.6% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile.

Projection
THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards

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