Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Vikings vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-135) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a big 11.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 136.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.2 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Michael Pittman has posted far fewer air yards this season (60.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Michael Pittman’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 7.51 yards-per-target compared to a 8.64 mark last season.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
