Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-135) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).

Pros

The Colts are a big 11.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 136.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

Cons

Michael Pittman has posted far fewer air yards this season (60.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Michael Pittman’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 7.51 yards-per-target compared to a 8.64 mark last season.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards