Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-113).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 63.4 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
Keenan Allen has been among the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 69.0 yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.

Cons

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Keenan Allen has been used less as a potential target this year (75.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (91.2%).
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards