NFL Week 5 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Vikings vs. Colts
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 93.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 93.5 (-110) after it opened @ 91.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Justin Jefferson has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (111.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- Justin Jefferson has posted far fewer air yards this year (108.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
- Justin Jefferson’s 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
110
Receiving Yards
110
Receiving Yards
