Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jerry JeudyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Broncos vs. Cardinals
Right now, Jerry Jeudy’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup quarterback Brett Rypien in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Broncos have been the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 62.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Cons
- Jerry Jeudy’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.0% to 63.4%.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 141.0) to wide receivers this year.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus WRs this year, conceding 7.46 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
