Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jerry Jeudy from EV Insight

Jerry JeudyReceiving Yards

Right now, Jerry Jeudy’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup quarterback Brett Rypien in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Broncos have been the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 62.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Cons

Jerry Jeudy’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.0% to 63.4%.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 141.0) to wide receivers this year.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus WRs this year, conceding 7.46 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards