NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Jakobi MeyersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Raiders vs. Patriots
Right now, Jakobi Meyers’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to accumulate 8.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has conceded the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (172.0) vs. wideouts this year.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (71%) versus wideouts this year (71.0%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.73 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
- The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
