Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Ian ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Panthers vs. Steelers
Right now, Ian Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 8.5 yards (-115/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 8.5 (-115) after it opened @ 7.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Ian Thomas’s receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 64.8% to 74.6%.
- Ian Thomas’s ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten better this season, averaging 9.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 4.00 rate last season.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up the 9th-most receiving yards per game in football (52.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
- Ian Thomas has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (34.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
14
Receiving Yards
14
Receiving Yards
