NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Raiders vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-129) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to notch 4.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
- Hunter Henry’s receiving efficiency has been refined this season, accumulating 9.55 yards-per-target vs just 8.52 rate last season.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 7th-most receiving yards per game in football (53.0) vs. TEs this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- Hunter Henry has posted far fewer air yards this year (27.0 per game) than he did last year (46.0 per game).
- Hunter Henry’s 25.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 34.8.
- Hunter Henry has posted substantially fewer receiving yards per game (30.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
