Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-129) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to notch 4.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Hunter Henry’s receiving efficiency has been refined this season, accumulating 9.55 yards-per-target vs just 8.52 rate last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 7th-most receiving yards per game in football (53.0) vs. TEs this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Hunter Henry has posted far fewer air yards this year (27.0 per game) than he did last year (46.0 per game).
Hunter Henry’s 25.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 34.8.
Hunter Henry has posted substantially fewer receiving yards per game (30.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards