NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jets vs. Lions
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-115) after it opened @ 55.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to garner 7.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.
- Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 22.7% this year, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest WRs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have used play action on a measly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
