Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Equanimeous St. Brown from EV Insight

Equanimeous St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Equanimeous St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 21.5 (-110) after it opened @ 19.5 (-120).

Pros

The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
Equanimeous St. Brown has been much more involved in his team’s pass attack this year (12.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (3.5%).
Equanimeous St. Brown has accumulated many more air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).
Equanimeous St. Brown has compiled significantly more receiving yards per game (22.0) this season than he did last season (10.0).
The Chicago Bears offensive line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 43.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards