Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to notch 9.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf has posted quite a few more air yards this year (109.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.8 plays per game.
DK Metcalf has been among the worst wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.06 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 23rd percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards