Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to notch 9.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- DK Metcalf has posted quite a few more air yards this year (109.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.8 plays per game.
- DK Metcalf has been among the worst wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.06 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 23rd percentile.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
