WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Panthers vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-115) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
- Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.8% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to garner 9.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in football (70.8%) vs. wideouts this year (70.8%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Diontae Johnson has accrued many fewer receiving yards per game (53.0) this year than he did last year (73.0).
- Diontae Johnson’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.6% to 61.8%.
- Diontae Johnson has been among the least efficient receivers in football, averaging a mere 6.30 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile among wideouts
- Diontae Johnson’s ability to pick up extra yardage has worsened this year, accumulating a mere 2.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.97 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
