Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 83.5 (-110) after it opened @ 80.5 (-114).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to earn 10.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Davante Adams has notched quite a few more air yards this year (125.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
Davante Adams’s 79.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 100th percentile for wideouts.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Davante Adams’s possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 75.8% to 62.0%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) to WRs this year (63.2%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. wideouts this year, conceding 7.96 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
91
Receiving Yards