Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bears vs. Eagles
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- Cole Kmet has run a route on 83.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 5.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet has been among the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 31.0 yards per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.
- Cole Kmet’s receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.2% to 73.6%.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 43.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
- The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
